RE the latest wave of overblown alarmism over breakthrough immune response.
Thank you so much for this post! I've been trying to wrap my head around OAS, and I've written about it previously and why I felt as if the mentions of OAS were being misattributed, including the UK data. I think your perspective is far better in your analysis, as I just posited that it may have been due to viral removal before antigen presentation since the N protein is sequestered within the virus, although that is definitely a parochial perspective.
I think this really just highlights that there's so much nuance and complexity to really discuss here and that we should be hesitant when we are adamant about a position. I'm really bad with virology and certain aspects of molecular biology. I find I much prefer to examine medicinal chemistry and pharmacology, so a lot of this tends to really go over my head and takes plenty of time to examine.
As much as I consider everything that goes on ridiculous, I do think we need to remain rational and not counter the craziness going on with our own misreadings and misinterpretations of the data, so thanks for your analysis!
Pieces coming together while bio-logical coherence breaks further apart?
Hi Brian, have discovered you courtesy of Mark L. Noticed Berenson has posted referring to this paper on monkey studies on boosting with omicron specific mRNA. The conclusion appears to be they are less effective than the original Wuhan strain booster at producing effective antibodies. Given the subject of this post I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the study and it's findings:
IMPORTANT question - can you pls debunk or give your take on this study so that I can sleep through the night once more without thinking I'm going to get infected with disability-inducing omicron 3 times a year? LOL. Appreciate you! "Interestingly, we found that mice previously immunized with A.1-specific vaccines failed to elevate neutralizing antibody titers against B.1.1.529 following B.1.1.529-targeted boosting, suggesting pre-existing immunity may impact the efficacy of B.1.1.529- targeted boosters." - OAS? https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.31.478520v1
I have a question. What exactly do high antibody levels mean anyway? I've had numerous Epstein-Barr virus blood tests done in the past few years. Without exception, the IgM is negative (since I first got mono at 17), but the IgG is super high (often going over 750), the EBNA is high, and the early antigen (EA) is positive. Some say this patten is indicative of reactivated Epstein-Barr but when I had a blood PCR test done last year, it was negative. So why is my body producing high levels of EBV antibodies? (Unless the virus is not in my bloodstream?)
Interesting debate going here on OAS. You make some good points, it seems. Doesn't the real world data, such as we have, make it pretty certain that the vaxxed are indeed getting Omicron at higher rates? If not OAS, what is it?
I really would love if we could get granular, high quality data on who exactly is getting infected and when across all categories. Unvaxxed naive, vaxxed naive, unvaxxed natural immunity, vaxxed natural immunity, boosted naive and NI, how long since last dose, when were previous infections, etc.
Brian, greatly appreciate your balanced and sensible perspective as always. I don't know how you do it but you seem to truly be able to keep an open mind and not be blinded by confirmation bias. Your point about the samples being taken before seroconversion would normally complete throws a lot of doubt on the results.
That said, there does seem to be a decent amount of evidence suggesting that Omicron is more likely to infect a person with a lapsed 2 dose regimen - the population adjusted case rates - although this evidence is also full of possible confounders. But the anecdotal data certainly isn't positive. It will be interesting to see how this experiment plays out as (presumably) people stop getting these shots and normal life hopefully resumes.. will there be a long term pattern of greater illness in that population?
Ok, off topic but what do you think of the doom and gloom theory of the Soritkin blog ? https://harvard2thebighouse.substack.com/p/a-grin-without-a-cat he is convinced that the virus will deattenuate from its present form to a full, true widowmaker.
I really would like to see a post on that.
He brings up this article often https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5787669/pdf/nihms925368.pdf
If you attempt to ask a question that is not like "I read your article and it is genius" you get shot down as not having read his article. (see his comment session. It is a cemetery of open discussion. )
Hi Brian. I must say that you have made a tremendous effort and wrote a very interesting article. I must admit that I have not analyzed every chart of it but you definitely have a point about NOT measuring antibodies at the right time, etc.
That said, I disagree with you on the main conclusion that there is no OAS. OAS for covid vaccinated exists, in my opinion.
The best proof of it is in real world observable events, and in statistics of thousands, not in measuring antibodies in a few convalescent guys. The observable events are
- Existing reinfections with a short recovery interval among the vaccinated
- UKHSA pretty much said that there is OAS when they admitted that the vaxed develop strong S antibodies after breakthrough infections, but do NOT develop N antibodies. This is the textbook definition of OAS.
I wrote a bunch of articles about it but the most recent one is:
I am open to changing my mind and I am not married to the concept of OAS.
But what else other than OAS can explain reinfections of the vaccinated that occur relatively often? My article has a few such testimonies pulled off reddit.
If there was OAS, what would you expect to see (both in terms of case/hospitalization/death data say in the UK and at individual level over time)?
Stupid question: If my understanding is correct, it's possible that blood analysis shows zero antibodies although you have capability of creating those antibodies
(via memory cells). Right? Otherwise our bodies would be full of antibodies for all sorts of diseases.
In the studies like this where you have a blood sample (and possibly no antibodies, but possibly B memory cells), does adding virus/bacteria trigger antibody production
in this blood sample?
An interesting alternative opinion, thanks! We need more debate on this to seek the actual truth.
It’s a shame he bounced you from his substack. This kind of back and forth is necessary. Thank you.
I just watched this very interesting interview with the pathologist Dr. Ryan Cole on Epoch TV today. He discusses an uptick in cancers, but also talks about Omicron and explains how it is not a variant of Omicron and why, and this explains why people with natural immunity are not protected from Omicron and can get it. My son is one. He had early Covid in Nov. 2019, is unvaxxed, but got Omicron 3 weeks ago. It was more like a flu...bad enough, but not too bad.
Bahahahahahahah oh god I did a double take, thinking I had already clicked an article of this title like 10 minutes ago. lolnope it's a punny bastard punnishing a pundit. I'll read it now.