Ok, off topic but what do you think of the doom and gloom theory of the Soritkin blog ? https://harvard2thebighouse.substack.com/p/a-grin-without-a-cat he is convinced that the virus will deattenuate from its present form to a full, true widowmaker.
If you attempt to ask a question that is not like "I read your article and it is genius" you get shot down as not having read his article. (see his comment session. It is a cemetery of open discussion. )
I think deattenuation happens on a much faster timeframe. For the Sabin live polio vaccine virus, for example, it probably deattenuates by the time it replicates enough in the recipient to be shed back out. This is why Sabin can cause poliomyelitis if caught second-hand by someone who isn't vaccinated - it essentially "is" polio. It doesn't take years or decades. Just a few cellular passages.
Maybe the timeline is actually slower. The SARS-CoV-2 variant Alpha (and probably Delta) featured amped-up Orf9b production which inproves TOM70 intracellular immunity suppression - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04352-y - this is likely a recovered anti-immunity trait that was lost (became clonally "recessive") during cellular passage in the lab, but it still took months to reemerge in real life. But young people still did fine against Alpha / Delta, it wasn't a super-weapon. In the end, a "deattenuated" SARS-CoV-2 just means... a regular coronavirus, with the regular coronavirus intracellular immune evasion toolkit, which is probably really extensive and exquisite and cool. The pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 stems from apparent inflammatory or autoimmune responses triggered by weird accessory epitopes on the spike, or maybe weird senescence-alteration effects on monocytes - but not its essential "virulence." So I'm sanguine about potential increases to that virulence. I think they might happen (just as flu sometimes becomes more virulent, defying the trope that viruses "want to get milder"), but they won't dramatically alter our experience of the virus.
I'm a bit puzzled by that blog too. In the latest entry it seems he is talking about prion disease? He's kind of vague and only about 10% of the entry is relevant, the rest is summarized as "I'm angry because people won't listen to me". I don't know if prion disease is likely or at what incidence it would be expected.
My general thinking about prions is that they sound super scary, like ICE-9 or gray goo.. but in reality this must be something that we have evolved to deal with over the last billion years. To my thinking there must be some people who are susceptible to prion problems, and this is relatively rare, and everyone else has some mechanism that addresses the issue. The fact that it's been 2 years of this evil CCP bioweapon that is going to kill everyone on earth, but nothing really has showed up yet, makes be doubt this story. If we have learned one thing from this disaster, it's that our immune systems are amazingly complex and amazingly effective.
Really the same story with OAS. VEI does happen, but it's a fairly rare scenario, because our immune systems have evolved to avoid it. Vaccinating with a super narrow antigen in the midst of a pandemic is probably pushing our luck, and something like VEI may still come to pass, but on the other hand our immune systems are pretty awesome so maybe it's not very likely!
What's a lot more likely than irreparable harm from a "novel" CoV that's mostly natural? A lot of other kinds of problems stemming from injecting yourself with toxic crap that's TRULY novel (e.g. PEG and metylpseudouridine).. cancer, clots, autoimmune, neurological problems, etc.
The prion disease *may* be an issue for some vaccinated people because multiple natural barriers have been bypassed through means of injection - the jab. And such cases have been heard including the Astrazeneca researcher. In the normal course of virus exposure however interface (nose) will most likely have a very limited number of folded proteins circulating and all of them will be cleaned by our immune system way before they get to a nerve and all of them result of our Immune system apoptosing infected cells. Or ?
Right, if you want a hard-core bioweapon super-virus, well... Adenovirus, Coronavirus, Varicella zoster, Measles... All of these would sound apocalyptic if their mechanisms were described on the news as belonging to a "novel" virus. Yeah, maybe someone could edit the code in varicella zoster to remove the dormancy timer, and kill 9/10ths of the planet before the virus re-co-evolves with its host, I guess - but in general it's a lot easier to kill everyone with an injection than a virus.
Ok, off topic but what do you think of the doom and gloom theory of the Soritkin blog ? https://harvard2thebighouse.substack.com/p/a-grin-without-a-cat he is convinced that the virus will deattenuate from its present form to a full, true widowmaker.
I really would like to see a post on that.
He brings up this article often https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5787669/pdf/nihms925368.pdf
If you attempt to ask a question that is not like "I read your article and it is genius" you get shot down as not having read his article. (see his comment session. It is a cemetery of open discussion. )
I think deattenuation happens on a much faster timeframe. For the Sabin live polio vaccine virus, for example, it probably deattenuates by the time it replicates enough in the recipient to be shed back out. This is why Sabin can cause poliomyelitis if caught second-hand by someone who isn't vaccinated - it essentially "is" polio. It doesn't take years or decades. Just a few cellular passages.
Maybe the timeline is actually slower. The SARS-CoV-2 variant Alpha (and probably Delta) featured amped-up Orf9b production which inproves TOM70 intracellular immunity suppression - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04352-y - this is likely a recovered anti-immunity trait that was lost (became clonally "recessive") during cellular passage in the lab, but it still took months to reemerge in real life. But young people still did fine against Alpha / Delta, it wasn't a super-weapon. In the end, a "deattenuated" SARS-CoV-2 just means... a regular coronavirus, with the regular coronavirus intracellular immune evasion toolkit, which is probably really extensive and exquisite and cool. The pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 stems from apparent inflammatory or autoimmune responses triggered by weird accessory epitopes on the spike, or maybe weird senescence-alteration effects on monocytes - but not its essential "virulence." So I'm sanguine about potential increases to that virulence. I think they might happen (just as flu sometimes becomes more virulent, defying the trope that viruses "want to get milder"), but they won't dramatically alter our experience of the virus.
I loved this answer. Good points.
I'm a bit puzzled by that blog too. In the latest entry it seems he is talking about prion disease? He's kind of vague and only about 10% of the entry is relevant, the rest is summarized as "I'm angry because people won't listen to me". I don't know if prion disease is likely or at what incidence it would be expected.
My general thinking about prions is that they sound super scary, like ICE-9 or gray goo.. but in reality this must be something that we have evolved to deal with over the last billion years. To my thinking there must be some people who are susceptible to prion problems, and this is relatively rare, and everyone else has some mechanism that addresses the issue. The fact that it's been 2 years of this evil CCP bioweapon that is going to kill everyone on earth, but nothing really has showed up yet, makes be doubt this story. If we have learned one thing from this disaster, it's that our immune systems are amazingly complex and amazingly effective.
Really the same story with OAS. VEI does happen, but it's a fairly rare scenario, because our immune systems have evolved to avoid it. Vaccinating with a super narrow antigen in the midst of a pandemic is probably pushing our luck, and something like VEI may still come to pass, but on the other hand our immune systems are pretty awesome so maybe it's not very likely!
What's a lot more likely than irreparable harm from a "novel" CoV that's mostly natural? A lot of other kinds of problems stemming from injecting yourself with toxic crap that's TRULY novel (e.g. PEG and metylpseudouridine).. cancer, clots, autoimmune, neurological problems, etc.
The prion disease *may* be an issue for some vaccinated people because multiple natural barriers have been bypassed through means of injection - the jab. And such cases have been heard including the Astrazeneca researcher. In the normal course of virus exposure however interface (nose) will most likely have a very limited number of folded proteins circulating and all of them will be cleaned by our immune system way before they get to a nerve and all of them result of our Immune system apoptosing infected cells. Or ?
Right, if you want a hard-core bioweapon super-virus, well... Adenovirus, Coronavirus, Varicella zoster, Measles... All of these would sound apocalyptic if their mechanisms were described on the news as belonging to a "novel" virus. Yeah, maybe someone could edit the code in varicella zoster to remove the dormancy timer, and kill 9/10ths of the planet before the virus re-co-evolves with its host, I guess - but in general it's a lot easier to kill everyone with an injection than a virus.