Indiana Down

Alarming UK pregnancy outcomes, and brief notes on the day's big news.

Brief notes on a b-b-b-booster’ed to the bone Monday.

Alarming stillbirth outcomes in the UK?

T Coddington, who writes at I Numero, has found a new segment in a recent UK Health Security Agency Vaccine Surveillance report which displays pregnancy outcomes for Covid vaccine recipients:

Vaccination and Pregnancy in the UK

As he notes, the outcomes are strange because they appear equal, but women who receive the Covid vaccines while already pregnant have passed some portion the 21+ weeks stillbirth risk window (the report is not comparing miscarriages, which are pregnancies that end in the first 20 weeks), and yet show equal rates of stillbirths as the unvaccinated (who must include that entire window). Edit: The term for this is “immortal time bias,” I always forget that one. Meanwhile, the text (pdf) does not mention adjusting for the shorter “time exposed” of Covid-vaccinated women in any manner, which is suspicious on a report meant to “reassure.”

Since stillbirth (again, not miscarriage) rates are pretty well-split between the second and third trimester, per Coddington’s referenced CDC data, there should be a hefty discount for the 71.5% of Covid-vaccinated women who did not enter that category until the third trimester. It isn’t showing:

Coddington follows up with some calculations to account for the older age of the Covid-vaccinated set, and still finds an apparent ~23% stillbirth risk increase from Covid-vaccination (note, again, that the baseline risk of stillbirth is only something like 1/40 of miscarriage risk).

Visit Coddington’s post and the agency report to see what you can make of the data for yourself. It all hinges on the math, but it’s not looking good for outcomes in the normally safer 21+ week period.¹

FDA edgelording

The FDA, in a fit of “New Year, Same You” insanity, has emergency-authorized boosters for the aged 12-15 set. In the corresponding Media Call, Center for Biologics Director Peter Marks noted specifically that this was only to mitigate severe outcomes. Reduction of transmission is a “hope,” at best, though only in the politic sense of not being allowed to dismiss as impossible.²

Which leaves ~100.0% of newly-targeted recipients receiving no benefit, as they would not have experienced severe outcomes to infection.³ And “severe efficacy” of the two-dose course never dropped to begin with.

It is now legal for an American to receive regular doses of an experimental mRNA transfection six years before it is legal to smoke. The FDA letter noted that none of the 6,300 members of a Pfizer booster trial in Israel were reported to have experienced the big M.⁴ Last week’s bombshell University of Oxford study appears not to have pierced the expert groupthink madness after all. See relevant self-promotional rectangle:

Reversal

A month was additionally chopped off of the recommended delay for a third dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine for all recipients 12 and above.⁵

Israel edgelording

Israel has given fourth-dosing the green light.⁶ My recommendation, last week, to stake out the Ministry of Health dashboard for the performance of the Covid vaccines against omicron may still hold⁷ - it depends on how disruptive this change is to the presentation of “fully vaccinated” and “unvaccinated” rates.

Fourth-dosing in Israel has been hinted and rumored for months; but this is a surprisingly aggressive move compared to recent, more ambivalent gestures by the government. News reports that Israel was “giving up” on the theatre of fighting SARS-CoV-2, in fact, were enough to prompt an official reversal today, issued by “Coronavirus czar” Salman Zarka.

Zarka clarified that restrictions were still on the table; but there will be no easing into them this time:

“We have no policy of mass infection. Herd immunity has no scientific basis,” Zarka told a press briefing. “We are currently facing a combined wave, with the Delta variant still active, and quite a few hospitalized patients are suffering from it.” […]

“In the situation we are in, light restrictions won’t help. We can go toward very significant restrictions like the first lockdown, because other restrictions won’t bring down infections. So we’re not recommending restrictions at this time just for the sake of saying we asked for them.”⁸

⁹

Indiana Down…

You have likely already seen some version of the Indiana story. Excess deaths among working age Hoosiers have alarmed an insurance executive.

I submitted my notes in a comment on Robert Malone’s original post. They are below; I may clean them up later. While the numbers sort-of hold up, I highlight how one of the most sensational quotes in The Center Square article is merely stating the obvious. Once that comment is removed, the story is more or less telling us what we could already see at usmortality.com:¹⁰ Things are looking bad.

My notes:

Hm, https://www.usmortality.com/excess-absolute suggests a ~25% excess rate for 2021 so far for 25-44 and 45-64 year-olds in Indiana -

(4403+14745-3225-12144)/(3225+12144) = 24.6

Note that 3,225 is expected deaths so far for 25-44 and 12,144 expected for 45-64.

But combining 2020 and 2021 together might change those results.

I think the flaw in the language of the article is that the story is about "excess deaths," but the quote "Most of the claims for deaths being filed are not classified as COVID-19 deaths" is about **all deaths**. So, it could still be true that "most or much of the excess" deaths are listed as Covid - especially for the 45-64 group, who have a higher background death rate.

This is particularly plausible given that US hospitals seemed to be deliberately mis-treating patients with ventilators all year, jacking up the deaths. So the excess could be driven by both the vaccines and the ventilators.

That leaves the abysmal signal for 25-44 year olds ((4403-3225)/3225 = 36.5% increase) basically exactly as bad as the article implied.

1. Meanwhile, the CDC’s “flagship” V-Safe pregnancy study has still not been updated since September, suspiciously - but at the time found no significant 20-week danger signal for women who received the Covid vaccines that early into pregnancy. See Zauche, L. et al. “Receipt of mRNA Covid-19 Vaccines and Risk of Spontaneous Abortion.”

This was a follow-up of the infamous NEJM posting that led to widespread rumors of an “82%” miscarriage rate over the summer. See “The ‘Preliminary Findings’ Paper.”

2. At ~5:00 of “Media Call: Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine Actions – 1/3/2022” youtube.com

3. See “Scienceme Street.”

There were only 173 (unvaccinated) teens hospitalized for “Covid-19” in the 19 examined pediatric hospitals through the entire four month study period, surely a surprise to any American news consumer who has been assured that the summer “surge” in pediatric cases was overwhelming hospitals left and right. If something like 1.5 million American teens - a very crude guess of how many were still unvaccinated in the coverage area and time-frame - would need to have been dosed to prevent 350 hospitalizations (assuming some teens in the same region ended up in nearby regular hospitals), that’s 1,499,650 pointless injections.

4. See https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-takes-multiple-actions-expand-use-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine

5. Confused Americans will soon be able to pick up a “FDA Covid vaccine EZ schedule workbook” from their local library.

6. Hendrix, Steve. “Israel now offering fourth covid shot to anyone 60 and older.” (2022, January 3.) The Washington Post.

7. See “Truth Bombs (as a verb).”

8. “Virus czar denies Israel pursuing herd immunity through mass infection.” (2022, January 3.) Times of Israel.

Although the quote is in the context of justifying sustained restrictions, I can’t help but take a little pleasure at the haughty denigration of the “herd immunity” myth.

9. (index link anchor)

10. Previously reviewed in “Invisible Apocalypse.”