Clarifying the scale of the stakes, and evidence regarding vaccine efficacy against death
It would seem the most reliable data to base an educated guess concerning the real makeup of covid-related mortality on, is to be found in john beaudoin's analysis of Massachusetts death certificates and from what i gleaned from it, it seems to point to massive underreporting of vaccine deaths, misclassification of the same as covid deaths and equally misclassified casualties to iatricidal covid treatment protocols (remdesivir etc)
The gold-standard randomized clinical trial mortality results for mRNA vaccines (the ONLY mortality data not compromised by healthy vaccine user bias and other fatal flaws) showed that mRNA vaccines are WORSE THAN USELESS for saving lives, even at the height of the pandemic and at peak effectiveness. BTW, the trials also showed ZERO reduction in the CASE-FATALITY rate by vaccination (though COVID deaths were rare in both groups)- the trials did show >90% reduction in the CASE rate, which is long outdated now in the Omicron era. Doesn't the data you are presenting show that the vast majority of mRNA vaccinated places had HIGHER all-cause mortality (and often COVID mortality) in the year after vaccine rollout than in the year before- so how can this data be used to claim that the vaccines saved lives? Especially considering that even in unvaccinated, case-fatality rates were: Wild type>Alpha>Delta>Omicron. Overall, we must not ignore the unfavorable gold-standard clinical trial data, especially when a VERY SIMILAR PATTERN is observed on a large scale in the real world as well. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/public_surveys/covid_19_virus_deaths_vs_vaccine_deaths
Finally, doesn't your Australia example do the OPPOSITE of showing the vaccines saved lives? It shows that the "reaction" as you call it (although not "palatable", and some will argue "not worth it" EVEN IF it saved lives) seemed to be a better bet than the vaccines, given that deaths clearly went up AFTER the vaccines. Especially since the same trend of "reaction">>vaccines (to save lives) was observed in many other places: to name a few- Japan, Canada, probably the "reaction-oriented" Northeast US too if you look at Year 1 vs. Year 2, taking variant case-fatality rate (even in unvaccinated) into account?
"Denying that the experimental vaccines maybe reduce severe disease is failing to argue that we should still have freedom, and avoid experimenting on humanity, anyway."
Bingo! I know no one in my life who was vaccinated that died from, or almost died from Covid. I know of about 10 unvaccinated people who died from Covid (mostly in Delta wave) and about 5 unvaccinated who almost died. One of my very healthy son's got a bad case of a year long brain fog after Delta and the other very healthy son got a very mild case of myocarditis. Both unvaccinated.
That said, nearly all the strange heart attacks/sudden deaths, cancers, and autoimmune issues I've seen have been from a vaccinated person. I do know of a couple unvaccinated who have developed odd autoimmune issues post Covid however.
"Schellekens has operated “pandem-ic.com” since at least 2021 to highlight, er, viral equity, in order to advocate, er, unclear notions of anti-viral equity, or something." Fantastically funny!
As I said before, I think you are looking at it the wrong way.
OK, I admit there are those who claim the virus is not real or just like the flu. And we also have those like Steven Kirsch that claim that 1 million people in the US died from the shot, or whatever his latest number is. But 'debunking that' is not that far from suggesting that all 'Team Reality' players believe the shot made me a 5G cell-tower or magnetic. No reasonable person believes that.
We know the following:
1) COVID killed lots of extra people.
2) Most of them are old. The average age in the West was around 80.
3) The Pre-Omicron twin variants were far more dangerous. Hence Australia saved a lot of elderly.
4) Soaking your blood with antibodies surely has some temporal positive effect, even when compensated for healthy user bias, corrupt statistical manipulation and all the intense stupidity of the vax advocates.
Sure, I'll also admit some people may not be able to admit (4), but that is indeed just common science. Not 'The Science', but actual science. :-) The efficacy is likely not 0%.
But what is far more important:
1) How many people die from the vaccination. The best estimate I still have comes from the Dutch that suggests for every 5 excess COVID death we have 1 unknown excess death. By lack of alternatives that explain our excess deaths, that could serve as a first estimate of what we may be looking at.
2) What is the age distribution? We have indications it may be more slanted to younger groups, especially male. But perhaps that is just because young people's deaths are more likely to be noticed. This is important, as in most comparisons we don't compare death numbers, but years lost. More importantly, at what age group is the break even point, where a X month of COVID-death reduction would not outweigh the Y chance of dying from the shot.
3) What are all ways that the vaccine can kill. We know a lot already about the heart damage/clots and its kill/ER-visit rates, but cancer/immune suppression effects is still unknown. Are these truly rare incidents?
In order to look at these questions, excess death among sub 50 year is far more useful than overall excess deaths, especially if looked at per death category. And the holy grail would be, if they are vaxed or not, but that latter is a well-guarded secret. (In The Netherlands for instance, the secretary of health is currently fighting very hard tooth and nail to deny parliament from getting that data, even though some parties explicitly asked the government to make that comparison.)
Only when we did that we can make a good comparison on the shot vs deaths. I wonder how high the break even point is, when taking the shot would be worth while during the Delta wave, which is the main wave the shots would ever have a chance to shine.
I also wonder for how many more years we'll see excess deaths due to the shot, provided the current excess deaths are indeed caused in part by these shots.
There's also the possible long term effects of the vaccine, which you allude to indirectly. But we won't know about that for a while.
'If we are all, in our individual connections, members of a village of 1,000, SARS-CoV-2 was never capable of being more than a minor tragedy, akin to a single house fire. Should villages stop making houses to avoid house fires?...How much thoughtless, panicked disruption is enough, just to avoid the reality that in life, sometimes people die?'
See, this is why I like to read Unglossed, for the distinct paucity of pearl-clutching.
I’ve said for decades now that there’s some weirdness going on where not one person can die from anything. The money we throw at things that are not stoppable is ridiculous. Regarding Covid the problem I have is complete lack of trust. I don’t know how you can state with surety the number of deaths when they fudged the numbers all along. They lied to boost the numbers of people with Covid and then they stopped reporting deaths when the vaccine was the killer. Who’s to know for sure? I believe the number killed is higher than we’ll ever know. I know for sure that people died unnecessarily for lack of treatment, the wrong treatment, being unhealthy while having Covid and from the vaccine. ALL of us were made to suffer though. It was a travesty and I will never stop calling for justice to hold those responsible, accountable!
very good analysis. few people understand this. Berenson in particular got it very wrong and cannot admit it. he made millions by deceiving millions.
In an ideal world your sensible prescription would be sound. But we don't live in such a world. Aside from spending a significant amount of time reading scientific studies, you certainly must, to some extent, engage with the world around you, right? (Rhetorical q, of course). And having been informed by the sheer pervasiveness of human fallibility and absurdity all around you, you must somewhat recognize that such a libertarianesque appeal is a superfluous one. Do you really believe after all you have seen/read/heard over the last few years (even longer, perhaps) that your sensible position would garner much purchase? C'mon, Brian! I'm sure you know better.
Despite all of our supposed 'progress', we humans remain slaves to our passions. And in the era of Covid, fear reigned supreme. Reasonable pleas NEVER stood a chance.
Vaccines kill people, there's very little doubt on that. Steve Kirsch has done a lot of investigation in that area. Here's one of his latest articles:
I’m not sure I totally followed this post, but there are plenty of countries with universal health care that know exactly who got COVID jabs, how many, what age they were, and whether they’re alive or dead. I’m tired of speculative articles guessing at what causes excess mortality. Look at the ACTUAL dead, report how many shots they got if any, and compare that death rate per group to the historic rates for those age groups. I did my best to do a study like that using UK data and to me it was pretty clear that young healthy people were dying from COVID jabs.
To plagiarize a recurring phase in John Wick 4: Such is life.
Great post. Yes. One thousand times yes. I have said this from the beginning. Our civil rights are not granted by governments,but bestowed by the creator, and are to be protected by the govt., following the biblical model as much as possible. Which is why the claim of asymptomatic transmission and widespread PCR testing is such pernicious evil...the bible does allow for quarantine of the visibly sick, and thus provides the proper balance of rights/responsibilities for societal function.
I asked a Covidian, one of my medical students here in Japan this very question. This student is unique in that she is not just out of high school as are her classmates; she is a licensed pharmacist and has worked for a major pharmaceutical company. To her, yes it was and is worth it and should be repeated. Same to, BTW, for ESG and China’s social credit scoring system. I share the following to give a more complete picture of the mind set of this pharmacist turned medical student. She said that whatever loss to whatever freedoms we enjoy in Japan is worth it to uphold her ideas of what will make the world a better place. She very angrily instructed us that businesses in business to earn a profit was “in the past!”, that their duty today is to do whatever is necessary to save the planet.
We can not think of these issues independently, these people aren’t.
What you seem to be calling Covid deaths I consider medical malfeasance deaths. Never did we tell sick people there’s nothing we can do to help you and close our clinics and offices to patients who were sick. That alone should have shown people that either this was a highly deadly disease or something was very wrong with our medical system. After a couple months it should have been obvious it was the latter as hardly anyone was dying. Putting non icu doctors in ICU’s and kids still in med school in the NYC hospitals certainly lead to needless deaths. Putting sick elderly in with the most vulnerable elderly who were locked away from their families and advocates killed them! That wasn’t Covid, it was malpractice! Covid likely would have killed as many as a bad flu had it been properly handled. This was about making money off our bodies with new tech they wanted to advance. This was about stealing the livelihoods of the middle class to bring them to their knees while enriching the Uber wealthy giving them more power over their weaken prey. This was about taking a big step toward one world rule and destroying freedom and the USA as a superpower. This was a trial run. Never is there a good enough excuse to coerce people into taking medical or bio weapons into their bodies and force healthy persons to lockdown. These shots certainly did not save lives but their agenda to bring them to market on a mass scale certainly killed them.
Jotting some rooftop thoughts as a note.
It really is illuminating, after 2 years of watching Berenson ignore evidence for severe efficacy, to see that January 2021 tweet and the borderline irrelevant "just as they aren't for the flu" argument. Why make a claim on the question so *early*, based on Israel data (which if anything was exaggerating severe efficacy at the time)?
It seems to all come down to a literally biological inability to change his mind on anything, and ideas he had in his head beforehand based on flu vaccines. But why should flu vaccine inefficacy govern expectations about the experimental Covid vaccines? When did this extrapolation ever make any sense?
Flu vaccines are futile because they are given to (elderly) adults who *already have natural immunity to the flu*. This isn't the hand the experimental Covid vaccines were playing. But instead he's so fixated on this handful of studies about flu vaccines that he doesn't even care about the actual evidence regarding this other, different thing.