Updates to "1918"
With apologies for the email bandwidth impact...
Several substantial updates, listed below the Attractive Substack Rectangle (ASR), have been made to Sunday’s post.
With these revisions complete, I hope to offer a take on either the latest horrible “Long Covid in kids” study or the WaPo OAS piece (recycling the fatally flawed “imprinting” study again) some time today, though it’s doubtful either is of sufficient quality to warrant a rebuttal. Preview: The kids’ study is as pure an example of relative-risk-as-naked-rhetorical-propaganda as you can get. It will be difficult to review simply because there is no nuance to the deception at all, and no raw data to untangle it.
And now for the promised ASR.
Added a consideration of the popular, alternate theory for the “W” mortality wave: “Immune overreaction.” This was thanks to a reference provided by reader “Fla Mom,” which featured a much more robust argument on the overreaction side than I had encountered previously. My response attempts to be coherent in grappling with the overreaction theory, but this is difficult, given the complexity of outcomes in 1918. The main takeaway is probably that there is no actual direct evidence for overreaction; the modern attribution of “cytokine storms” to 1918 is an anachronism.
The corollary question of “bacterial secondary infection” is continued in the footnotes, where I invite anyone who can to ‘splain me the direct pathological evidence in favor of this trope.
Revamped the H1 vs. H2/H3 section in light of the relevance of the latter recycling the former’s “internal” genes. (In my endeavor to steel-man the case that H1 might be more pathogenic in general, I missed the obvious counter-argument for why H2 and H3 were not “worse than 1918”).
Added the following resource to the “Continuity” section, which presents the evidence for the 1950→1977 lab leak in a “raw” form. I always feel this improves the presentation of any conclusion, even one that is endorsed by the experts.
Some elaboration for the reassortment swine flu section (featuring another new resource based on Smith, G. et al). Unfortunately, the new recognition of the likely attenuation of 20th Century H2 and H3 crossovers due to preservation of the immune-recognized H1N1 backbone necessitated proposing a potential threat from a future H2 crossover in swine. However, since the framing of the essay and this section is specifically about H1, this doesn’t contradict the overall message.
Added an “implications” section, to address the potential for another long term H1 absence leading to immune debt.
Added a throwaway remark, in the footnotes, on the evidence for indirect emergence of 1918 H1N1. This is only notable for the rubber ducky.
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Geez, guys. Does no one understand that the W death curve of the 1918 flu was that the flu epidemic was used as cover for extreme mortality following previous widespread vaccinations?
There was probably a 1918 flu, yes, just like there's a flu every year. But prior to this flu, there was a vast vaccination campaign that targeted especially soldiers and their families. Millions of people were vaccinated under coercion and under war pretenses. They had a complement of 30+ vaccines and the soldiers received even 6 per day. Those who refused experienced similar castigations as today.
The healthy young people who died did not have symptoms resembling a flu! They had all kinds of different symptoms resembling the diseases against which they were vaccinated. Experiments were conducted about how this flu might spread, and military doctors found it did not spread at all. The famous 1919 article by Milton J. Rosenau, published in JAMA, is short, concise, grisly and unbelievable:
https://files.catbox.moe/60djqh.pdf
Here's an interview with Hans Tulzin in Session 82 of the Corona Investigative Committee. It starts at 1h 27m 30s. Link to that section:
https://odysee.com/@Corona-Investigative-Committee:5/session-82-en:1?t=5250
Corroborating Tulzin's case is Eleanor McBean's book, The Poisoned Needle. According to these sources, it is the vaccinated that were dying. The unvaccinated were spared.
It is extremely frustrating that people with PhDs, who are somewhat red-pilled, are still not looking into this type of fundamental question. The Covid-19 vaccine project would not have been possible without psychology, and this must include widespread distortion of important historical events.
Reading through the comments on that WaPo article was probably the stupidest thing I've done throughout the whole pandemic. Makes one shudder.