Pretty concerning. What about other adverse longer term impacts from covid / vaccines other than myocarditis though? What is your feeling on the relative risk overall?
The virus scores as low absolute risk in my view. First, because it is treatable. Second - this is more of a philosophical reply to the way we view "preventable" illnesses - life is risky. This includes the risk of the immune system dropping the ball. If SARS-CoV-2 outcomes depend on immune competence, what is the *net* added risk of encountering SARS-CoV-2 vs not? Lets take kids for the extreme example. Imagine 100 kids in Kentucky developed MIS-C after infection from SARS-CoV-2 in 2021. Then imagine no SARS-CoV-2 in 2021. How many of those same kids would have developed MIS-C from something else? There's always another immune challenge in the wings. The flaw of medicine is to "prevent" 100 illnesses from X, then when 80 illnesses take their place, "prevent" those 80, and declare 180 illnesses prevented, even though 60 still get ill.
People are going to get sick if they are stressed, don't exercise, or just unlucky.
I see the vaccine as not playing that same game - it's not the mallet chasing the moles. It's just driving a car into the machine. At best the car misses or only grazes (due to poor quality control during manufacture and cold chain). I've laid out my view of the biggest risk in https://unglossed.substack.com/p/liquid-cancer
Very clear, many thanks! I suppose the confounder to the above is if covid 19 is a uniquely nasty virus in terms of long term sequelae. I guess your assumption is that this is essentially not the case, and that 'long covid' is no different / more severe than other post viral complications?
In terms of potential adverse vaccine side effects it would certainly be terrifying if the cancer hypothesis turns out to be true. Generally though would you agree that there isn't currently conclusive evidence that the vaccine is causing excess mortality? I have seen many commentators make that case (e.g. Berenson) but they seem to cherry pick the countries under analysis, ignoring others which had had widespread vaccination campaigns yet no apparent excess mortality. This latter point would seem to invalidate the thesis - unless I'm missing something!
Dec 27, 2021·edited Dec 27, 2021Liked by Brian Mowrey
Could it be that myocarditis is pronounced in the vaccinated 13-39 group because it’s that group who are running around and pushing themselves physically. Someone who is vaccinated and 45 might be equally susceptible it’s just that middle aged men don’t run up and down football fields. But if they did…
I mean to imply that it’s possibly vaccination plus exertion that’s the factor and not vaccination plus age.
It’s a good theory, and a scary thought. It implies that everyone taking it easy has to keep doing so for, well, the rest of their lives; what kind of life it that. I’ve also speculated that it’s either the ratio of heart size to body weight in younger men or an issue with under-screening in women who report related symptoms (in https://unglossed.substack.com/p/ocarditis)
What makes this even worse is it's unclear whether the post infection myocarditis has the same root cause and mechanism of action as vaccine induced. There's some reason to think vaccine induced can be much more hazardous if the mechanism is an autoimmune response against heart tissues. The virus and the vaccine do not necessarily attack the same tissues since the vaccine is not driven by receptor recognition.
Another interesting point.. early treatment that knocks down the viral replication early and promptly addresses inflammation issues could significantly lower risks of these sequelae. Would be interesting to see the risk profile of early treatment recipients broken out.
Once again we are stuck comparing vaccine acceptance to no treatment or whatever deadly stuff the CDC recommends....
Would be same receptor in the case of the vector vaccines, where according to my best understanding the adenovirus ends up with SARS-CoV-2 spike instead of the normal glycoprotein. I'm not sure autoimmune response plausibly explains the typical rapid onset, but I think there must be loads of autoimmune effects from the vaccine and some will affect the heart (adding on to whatever the direct damage is).
I would be even more bullish on the link between viremia and cardiac / other issues during infection - i.e., a non auto-immune explanation. Either way, presumably there were no early-treatment patients in the UK.
Thanks, I didn't realize that the spike was used for the DNA vector version. I would expect that to be a lower risk approach. I wonder how different the side effect profiles are.
Lower? Seems to account for the clotting-ness of the vector ones, in my view - the injection potentially puts spike directly into the bloodstream, and then leads to cellular expression of more of the same. I'm not sure if it's really even understood what the physical structure of the vectors are, and what protein ends up packaged on the envelope. Ironically the natural adenovirus protein even more directly targets cardiomyocytes - the receptor they use to fuse together is literally named after the virus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coxsackievirus_and_adenovirus_receptor
"All patients diagnosed or suspected to have acute myocarditis should be admitted to the hospital and be monitored for hemodynamic instability. Immediate complications of myocarditis include ventricular dysrhythmias, left ventricular aneurysm, CHF, and dilated cardiomyopathy. The mortality rate is up to 20% at 1 year and 50% at 5 years. Despite optimal medical management, overall mortality has not changed in the last 30 years."
The physiology between viral myocarditis (the predominate prior cause of diagnosed m.) and vaccine-induced could be different - the correlation of inflammation or other markers to cardiomyocyte destruction might not be the same in both cases. And of course, the ratio of diagnosed / subclinical could be off. Lots of things are probably more common than we realize, including viral m. that never leads to diagnosis and heals on its own over the years.
Maybe I missed something but wasn't there the argument that Myocarditis from the Virus happens mostly in the ICU, which respectively means that it happens to people with higher chance of having prior health issues as opposed to people who get it from the vaccine where being healthier is actually risk factor?
So many arcs to follow though and I don't know if the ICU argument was refuted at some point. Unfortunately the anti-vax community has the same tendency to jump over everything that fits their bias regardless if it has a solid ground under it, which makes it much easier for the propagandist to punish the weak links in the discussion and create the illusion that it is science vs the flat-earth party
That was absolutely the case with the clotting risk fact checks in the summer - the sky high rates from early 2020 studies that only looked at severe cases would be cited.
Myocarditis is a bit more nebulous, I'm pretty sure that it's all database trawling like the Patone, M. et al. study on account of it being rare after both virus and vaccine.
So litigating whether it is a rare, discrete event or a rare signal for a more common harm is largely a matter of theory. My instinct is strongly in favor of rare discrete for virus and rare common for vax. Virus goes to lungs, vax goes to muscle/artery depending on luck and is coated with PEG to promote dispersion anyway.
The frustrations over here on Team Reality keep mounting. With each revelation of harm, each "rare" break through case, I keep feeling like we are violently shaking the shoulders of people screaming "Wake up!". I hope that each one is the last and that the world shakes this off and gets back to normal. Had enough yet?!
His construction is hilarious. "Guys, if it turns out these vaccines kill millions, it will be a VACCINE PR NIGHTMARE."
But I imagine he is really articulating an intuition of impending loss of expert prestige / violent revolt from we proles; in which case, the hyperbole is appropriate.
Presumably the Amish answer to whether God will help, if Americans stopped automatically injecting their own children 60+ times to fend off mostly harmless infections, would be, "Funny you should mention it..."
Sadly, so far the PR departments seem up to the task. But this may bust their whole PR system. The Amish are living proof that we can get by without 99% if our health care system. I'm heading down that road myself. It's funny, my PCP who I last saw in 2019 had started barraging me with texts and calls to try to get me to come in. Why now I wonder? I don't particularly want to go waste time getting harassed. Instead of going to the doctor I'm trying to make positive changes in my life to improve my health.
I am on the Amish system. No insurance. When one day my heart stops, I do not want to be tortured for a month to have the permission of dying in accordance.
At this point we don't even have to imagine. These morons are blathering away on all forms of news and social media all day, no longer even trying to hide their true colors.
Prasad goes out of his way to speculate that 2nd-dose associated myocarditis is exacerbated by the proximity to the 1st dose "We could have spaced out dose 2 in young men..." He might have a point. In which case, the signal for cardiac harms from the "boosters" should be given extra weight.
Pretty concerning. What about other adverse longer term impacts from covid / vaccines other than myocarditis though? What is your feeling on the relative risk overall?
The virus scores as low absolute risk in my view. First, because it is treatable. Second - this is more of a philosophical reply to the way we view "preventable" illnesses - life is risky. This includes the risk of the immune system dropping the ball. If SARS-CoV-2 outcomes depend on immune competence, what is the *net* added risk of encountering SARS-CoV-2 vs not? Lets take kids for the extreme example. Imagine 100 kids in Kentucky developed MIS-C after infection from SARS-CoV-2 in 2021. Then imagine no SARS-CoV-2 in 2021. How many of those same kids would have developed MIS-C from something else? There's always another immune challenge in the wings. The flaw of medicine is to "prevent" 100 illnesses from X, then when 80 illnesses take their place, "prevent" those 80, and declare 180 illnesses prevented, even though 60 still get ill.
People are going to get sick if they are stressed, don't exercise, or just unlucky.
I see the vaccine as not playing that same game - it's not the mallet chasing the moles. It's just driving a car into the machine. At best the car misses or only grazes (due to poor quality control during manufacture and cold chain). I've laid out my view of the biggest risk in https://unglossed.substack.com/p/liquid-cancer
Very clear, many thanks! I suppose the confounder to the above is if covid 19 is a uniquely nasty virus in terms of long term sequelae. I guess your assumption is that this is essentially not the case, and that 'long covid' is no different / more severe than other post viral complications?
In terms of potential adverse vaccine side effects it would certainly be terrifying if the cancer hypothesis turns out to be true. Generally though would you agree that there isn't currently conclusive evidence that the vaccine is causing excess mortality? I have seen many commentators make that case (e.g. Berenson) but they seem to cherry pick the countries under analysis, ignoring others which had had widespread vaccination campaigns yet no apparent excess mortality. This latter point would seem to invalidate the thesis - unless I'm missing something!
Could it be that myocarditis is pronounced in the vaccinated 13-39 group because it’s that group who are running around and pushing themselves physically. Someone who is vaccinated and 45 might be equally susceptible it’s just that middle aged men don’t run up and down football fields. But if they did…
I mean to imply that it’s possibly vaccination plus exertion that’s the factor and not vaccination plus age.
It’s a good theory, and a scary thought. It implies that everyone taking it easy has to keep doing so for, well, the rest of their lives; what kind of life it that. I’ve also speculated that it’s either the ratio of heart size to body weight in younger men or an issue with under-screening in women who report related symptoms (in https://unglossed.substack.com/p/ocarditis)
"this administration will have dropped a nuclear bomb on vaccine confidence for 20 years. God help us all."
Damn! Our standard way of killing the plebs is exposed!
What makes this even worse is it's unclear whether the post infection myocarditis has the same root cause and mechanism of action as vaccine induced. There's some reason to think vaccine induced can be much more hazardous if the mechanism is an autoimmune response against heart tissues. The virus and the vaccine do not necessarily attack the same tissues since the vaccine is not driven by receptor recognition.
Another interesting point.. early treatment that knocks down the viral replication early and promptly addresses inflammation issues could significantly lower risks of these sequelae. Would be interesting to see the risk profile of early treatment recipients broken out.
Once again we are stuck comparing vaccine acceptance to no treatment or whatever deadly stuff the CDC recommends....
Would be same receptor in the case of the vector vaccines, where according to my best understanding the adenovirus ends up with SARS-CoV-2 spike instead of the normal glycoprotein. I'm not sure autoimmune response plausibly explains the typical rapid onset, but I think there must be loads of autoimmune effects from the vaccine and some will affect the heart (adding on to whatever the direct damage is).
I would be even more bullish on the link between viremia and cardiac / other issues during infection - i.e., a non auto-immune explanation. Either way, presumably there were no early-treatment patients in the UK.
Thanks, I didn't realize that the spike was used for the DNA vector version. I would expect that to be a lower risk approach. I wonder how different the side effect profiles are.
Lower? Seems to account for the clotting-ness of the vector ones, in my view - the injection potentially puts spike directly into the bloodstream, and then leads to cellular expression of more of the same. I'm not sure if it's really even understood what the physical structure of the vectors are, and what protein ends up packaged on the envelope. Ironically the natural adenovirus protein even more directly targets cardiomyocytes - the receptor they use to fuse together is literally named after the virus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coxsackievirus_and_adenovirus_receptor
I see what you mean.
Also if I recall the quantity of active material in the DNA version is something like 10x higher
Yes now they can sell them heart meds and expensive tests forever.
Won't be much of a "forever," if Covid vaccine-induced myocarditis has the same prognosis as "classic" virus-induced. But time will tell.
"All patients diagnosed or suspected to have acute myocarditis should be admitted to the hospital and be monitored for hemodynamic instability. Immediate complications of myocarditis include ventricular dysrhythmias, left ventricular aneurysm, CHF, and dilated cardiomyopathy. The mortality rate is up to 20% at 1 year and 50% at 5 years. Despite optimal medical management, overall mortality has not changed in the last 30 years."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK459259/
The physiology between viral myocarditis (the predominate prior cause of diagnosed m.) and vaccine-induced could be different - the correlation of inflammation or other markers to cardiomyocyte destruction might not be the same in both cases. And of course, the ratio of diagnosed / subclinical could be off. Lots of things are probably more common than we realize, including viral m. that never leads to diagnosis and heals on its own over the years.
Maybe I missed something but wasn't there the argument that Myocarditis from the Virus happens mostly in the ICU, which respectively means that it happens to people with higher chance of having prior health issues as opposed to people who get it from the vaccine where being healthier is actually risk factor?
So many arcs to follow though and I don't know if the ICU argument was refuted at some point. Unfortunately the anti-vax community has the same tendency to jump over everything that fits their bias regardless if it has a solid ground under it, which makes it much easier for the propagandist to punish the weak links in the discussion and create the illusion that it is science vs the flat-earth party
That was absolutely the case with the clotting risk fact checks in the summer - the sky high rates from early 2020 studies that only looked at severe cases would be cited.
Myocarditis is a bit more nebulous, I'm pretty sure that it's all database trawling like the Patone, M. et al. study on account of it being rare after both virus and vaccine.
So litigating whether it is a rare, discrete event or a rare signal for a more common harm is largely a matter of theory. My instinct is strongly in favor of rare discrete for virus and rare common for vax. Virus goes to lungs, vax goes to muscle/artery depending on luck and is coated with PEG to promote dispersion anyway.
The frustrations over here on Team Reality keep mounting. With each revelation of harm, each "rare" break through case, I keep feeling like we are violently shaking the shoulders of people screaming "Wake up!". I hope that each one is the last and that the world shakes this off and gets back to normal. Had enough yet?!
"If it is revealed ... God help us all."
You will have brought it on yourselves, you arrogant fools.
His construction is hilarious. "Guys, if it turns out these vaccines kill millions, it will be a VACCINE PR NIGHTMARE."
But I imagine he is really articulating an intuition of impending loss of expert prestige / violent revolt from we proles; in which case, the hyperbole is appropriate.
Presumably the Amish answer to whether God will help, if Americans stopped automatically injecting their own children 60+ times to fend off mostly harmless infections, would be, "Funny you should mention it..."
Sadly, so far the PR departments seem up to the task. But this may bust their whole PR system. The Amish are living proof that we can get by without 99% if our health care system. I'm heading down that road myself. It's funny, my PCP who I last saw in 2019 had started barraging me with texts and calls to try to get me to come in. Why now I wonder? I don't particularly want to go waste time getting harassed. Instead of going to the doctor I'm trying to make positive changes in my life to improve my health.
I am on the Amish system. No insurance. When one day my heart stops, I do not want to be tortured for a month to have the permission of dying in accordance.
My grandfather wasted away as a catatonic body for five or six years thanks to the "miracle" of modern science. No thanks.
Will this cause a change in the viruganda ?
Gotta get everyone waxxed so you eliminate the control group.
Imagine how sadistic you have to be to increase the harm and deaths just to try and cover your own ass.
At this point we don't even have to imagine. These morons are blathering away on all forms of news and social media all day, no longer even trying to hide their true colors.
Prasad goes out of his way to speculate that 2nd-dose associated myocarditis is exacerbated by the proximity to the 1st dose "We could have spaced out dose 2 in young men..." He might have a point. In which case, the signal for cardiac harms from the "boosters" should be given extra weight.