I am also a resident of Bizarro world, at least to some extent.. the fact that the hospital protocols literally kill people is a massive thumb on the scale. My pro-vax father can't get past this because he has seen unvaccinated people die of covid or have terrible sequelae, and says they should have gotten the vax, without realizing that the proper comparison is to a treatment protocol that isn't designed to kill the patient. People also get wrapped around the axle on effectiveness and waning. From what I can tell, the shots initially have negative effectiveness and a higher odds of infection (the worry window), then are broadly effective for a period of time, and then may resume negative effectiveness after "waning". At least that's what the UK data appears to show. Many people latch onto the waning and then attempt to disprove the period of effectiveness, which actually does exist. But remember, it doesn't need to prevent or even reduce chances of contracting covid, it only has to increase your odds of staying out of a hospital!
To make things more complex you also have variants that very in vax effectiveness as well as underlying severity.
Anyway, I had also noticed what you point out about all cause mortality in the northeast. There's no question that the Bizarro world effect is in full force here. However, as far as vax injury, I don't think it's impossible to see in all-cause mortality. Some vax injury happens right out of the gate, but other shows up later as a slow drip. The key to analyzing all cause mortality is age stratification, because death rates in the people who were likely to die anyway swamp the numbers. Have you seen this write-up on german numbers? It's a slam dunk in my opinion (note that I'm unaware of the covid protocols used in german hospitals, they are probably not as bad as the US):
One interesting question is how the vax stacks up against vitamin D.. if that was enough to reduce severity to keep out of the hospital, would it fix the stats?
I am also a resident of Bizarro world, at least to some extent.. the fact that the hospital protocols literally kill people is a massive thumb on the scale. My pro-vax father can't get past this because he has seen unvaccinated people die of covid or have terrible sequelae, and says they should have gotten the vax, without realizing that the proper comparison is to a treatment protocol that isn't designed to kill the patient. People also get wrapped around the axle on effectiveness and waning. From what I can tell, the shots initially have negative effectiveness and a higher odds of infection (the worry window), then are broadly effective for a period of time, and then may resume negative effectiveness after "waning". At least that's what the UK data appears to show. Many people latch onto the waning and then attempt to disprove the period of effectiveness, which actually does exist. But remember, it doesn't need to prevent or even reduce chances of contracting covid, it only has to increase your odds of staying out of a hospital!
To make things more complex you also have variants that very in vax effectiveness as well as underlying severity.
Anyway, I had also noticed what you point out about all cause mortality in the northeast. There's no question that the Bizarro world effect is in full force here. However, as far as vax injury, I don't think it's impossible to see in all-cause mortality. Some vax injury happens right out of the gate, but other shows up later as a slow drip. The key to analyzing all cause mortality is age stratification, because death rates in the people who were likely to die anyway swamp the numbers. Have you seen this write-up on german numbers? It's a slam dunk in my opinion (note that I'm unaware of the covid protocols used in german hospitals, they are probably not as bad as the US):
https://metatron.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-in-germany-2020
He also has a deep dive on massachusetts which also shows a lot of problems if you stratify:
https://metatron.substack.com/p/the-definitive-guide-to-covid-and?s=r
One interesting question is how the vax stacks up against vitamin D.. if that was enough to reduce severity to keep out of the hospital, would it fix the stats?
It would be helpful to reader to be a bit more concise.