Very interesting, thanks. As you say, the comparison between vaccinated and unvaccinated for the under 19s will likely be fairly significantly skewed by the vaccinated cohort having a higher % of vulnerable individuals. Indeed as far as I remember it was only the vulnerable in that age range who were offered the vaccine initially. Thus I think it may be dangerous to read too much into these numbers.
For 19-34 cohort, the fact there isn't a clear signal of excess all cause mortality for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated is surely quite reassuring? Especially as the aformentioned 'vulnerable' bias is likely still present in this age range, albeit much weaker (I haven't seen good data on this though, just a hunch).
I'm not clear why the picture should be much different for > 40 age? Is your point that adverse reactions to the vaccine increase with age?
In terms of 'excess mortality trends seen in various regions', I think it is worth also pointing out there are regions / countries where this is not the case.
It seems very strong in Europe for 2021 - https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps - but the combined numbers might be driven by Ukraine, and that was all apparently the virus (the vax rate is low). Only Sweden didn't have any excess-bumps.
I think the picture is different for the >40 because the virus caused more death among the unvaccinated then we want to admit, because it turned out that Delta was in fact deadlier. Obviously this could have been mitigated with better treatment - and in the US, hospitals appear to have actively made things worse by reviving the wait + vent-to-death protocol over the summer, especially in the south and midwest. Maybe the Covid vaccines are causing more deaths in this group as well, though I see mostly disablement in VAERS. So I think the Indiana deaths surge *is,* in fact, mostly deaths from virus.
Maybe in teens and younger alone. Not that the older might not be dying in greater number. That's the problem with comparing against background deaths rate, which are orders of magnitude different for the young and old. That's just for 2021. I think deaths will increase each year. So who knows, we might be able to see it outside our windows before we ever find a smoking gun in the statistics.
Understood thanks. Do you know what the analysis you have done above looks like for older age groups (>34)? Or perhaps the data isn't there to do that?
It seems like in the meantime they removed a lot of older deaths. That makes sense since why would the data Campbell uses report an avg age of 82.5 but find no other underlying conditions? There should be tons in that group.
Still, it's a bit of a sticky question what to do about it. Most older people *are* unhealthy, especially here in the US, including especially among unvaccinated southerners... Yet we already know that its not this group that has the more highly exaggerated impression of the lethality of the bug.
Another way to look at it is that 11,188 people with no pre-existing conditions, died with COVID but something else on the death certificate contributed to their deaths
Very interesting, thanks. As you say, the comparison between vaccinated and unvaccinated for the under 19s will likely be fairly significantly skewed by the vaccinated cohort having a higher % of vulnerable individuals. Indeed as far as I remember it was only the vulnerable in that age range who were offered the vaccine initially. Thus I think it may be dangerous to read too much into these numbers.
For 19-34 cohort, the fact there isn't a clear signal of excess all cause mortality for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated is surely quite reassuring? Especially as the aformentioned 'vulnerable' bias is likely still present in this age range, albeit much weaker (I haven't seen good data on this though, just a hunch).
I'm not clear why the picture should be much different for > 40 age? Is your point that adverse reactions to the vaccine increase with age?
In terms of 'excess mortality trends seen in various regions', I think it is worth also pointing out there are regions / countries where this is not the case.
It seems very strong in Europe for 2021 - https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps - but the combined numbers might be driven by Ukraine, and that was all apparently the virus (the vax rate is low). Only Sweden didn't have any excess-bumps.
I think the picture is different for the >40 because the virus caused more death among the unvaccinated then we want to admit, because it turned out that Delta was in fact deadlier. Obviously this could have been mitigated with better treatment - and in the US, hospitals appear to have actively made things worse by reviving the wait + vent-to-death protocol over the summer, especially in the south and midwest. Maybe the Covid vaccines are causing more deaths in this group as well, though I see mostly disablement in VAERS. So I think the Indiana deaths surge *is,* in fact, mostly deaths from virus.
Ah ok, got it, thanks. So I guess you are erring towards not attributing current excess mortality (where observed) to the vaccines?
Maybe in teens and younger alone. Not that the older might not be dying in greater number. That's the problem with comparing against background deaths rate, which are orders of magnitude different for the young and old. That's just for 2021. I think deaths will increase each year. So who knows, we might be able to see it outside our windows before we ever find a smoking gun in the statistics.
Understood thanks. Do you know what the analysis you have done above looks like for older age groups (>34)? Or perhaps the data isn't there to do that?
Interesting, thanks! The data is only up to Oct so boosters had barely started so will be interesting to see future updates.
On a separate note:
Only 6,183 people died solely of COVID-19 in England & Wales
And only 833 under 60s.
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/only-6183-people-died-solely-of-covid
I thought it was 17,371, per the FOI doc - Campbell did a very good video on it https://youtu.be/9UHvwWWcjYw
These were deaths without any pre-existing conditions. There were only 6,183 deaths were COVID-19 was the sole cause of death.
Thanks. That's what Campbell says his numbers represent as well. But now I see he is working with a Dec 8 FOI release https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsfromcovid19withnootherunderlyingcauses and you've got a newer one https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19deathsandautopsiesfeb2020todec2021
It seems like in the meantime they removed a lot of older deaths. That makes sense since why would the data Campbell uses report an avg age of 82.5 but find no other underlying conditions? There should be tons in that group.
Still, it's a bit of a sticky question what to do about it. Most older people *are* unhealthy, especially here in the US, including especially among unvaccinated southerners... Yet we already know that its not this group that has the more highly exaggerated impression of the lethality of the bug.
Another way to look at it is that 11,188 people with no pre-existing conditions, died with COVID but something else on the death certificate contributed to their deaths