"Covid cases" vs. middle aged excess deaths - 25 most populous US states
A follow-up to “American excess mortality does not reflect Covid vaccine harms (yet)”
Notes:
Light blue: Cumulative reported infections with SARS-CoV-2. Worldometers.info.
Purple: Aggregate excess mortality, ages 45-64. Usmortality.com.
Early 2020 “pre-test era” offsets are assigned to states ad hoc. If deaths (purple) rise above trend in early 2020, then deaths and cases (light blue) are aligned when the trend resumes. Typically these are states with early, urban epicenters of infection, most conspicuously New York.
2021 “Working age” excess deaths are driven by Southern and Midwestern state Delta waves. As I said a year ago.
Where booster-approval (August 17, 2021) is followed by increases in excess deaths, it is also the case that recorded infections rise at the same time. Whereas increases precede booster approval if recorded Delta-era infections do the same (as in Texas, Tennessee, Virginia), though there are exceptions (Colorado, North Carolina). Booster approval is seemingly coincidental to Delta’s impact on excess mortality in this age group.
Minnesota is missing. Sorry, Minnesota :(
If you derived value from this post, please drop a few coins in your fact-barista’s tip jar.
Interesting. In a quite a few states, it seems like the purple slope of excess deaths increases a little bit after EUA and a moderate slope increase following the booster. Of course, that is the same period you write "delta" as starting. But the first several weeks of Delta, no increase. Only following boosters. Hmm....excess deaths seems to tale off when omicron came out but also when omicron came out is when people stopped boosting (ie 4th booster is about 12% uptake) and many started to decline vaccines.
Although this isn't an ideal debate method (there are much better ways), I still appreciate the back-and-forth. And, I hope you continue to respond to criticism and contention —particularly in the composed manner that you do. Thanks, Brian